Before we analyze the data, I need to explain that the Democrats combine two State Legislative Districts to create each of their 20 “Delegate Districts”. I am unsure how the Republicans derive their 12 Delegate Districts from the 40 State Legislative Districts, or why their Districts are so unbalanced by number of registered voters. The Democratic and Republican Delegate Districts do not directly overlap, or correspond to each other. This means that the source data can be used to compare the Democrats to the Republicans by state totals, but not by Delegate District number.

More importantly, the data can be used to compare each Party’s own performance from 2016 to 2020. This is the link for New Jersey's State Legislative Districts:  https://www.njleg.state.nj.us/districts/districtnumbers.asp

Here’s a few highlights from my voter analysis:

1. DEMOCRATIC TURNOUT WAS LOWER IN NORTHERN URBAN CENTERS:

The Democratic Primary voter turnout was far lower in 2020 than 2016 in the Delegate Districts that included the State’s major urban centers. The turnout ranged from 77% to 83.9% (see below). The rebuttable presumption is that the middle-class and wealthy suburbs in each of the following districts came in at 100%, 120%, or even higher (meaning they voted at a higher rate in 2020 than in 2016), but the cities themselves came in around 50% or even lower. So few urban residents voted in the 2020 Primary that they dragged down their respective Delegate District totals to below the 2016 count. The data I have only shows the combined total of each Delegate District, as follows:

- Elizabeth and Plainfield (77.0%)
- Newark and Irvington (83.1%),
- Most of Hudson County plus City of Passaic (83.1%), and
- Paterson, Garfield, Orange and East Orange (83.9%).

For example, the higher income suburbs around Elizabeth and Plainfield could have voted at 130%, but the two cities in that Delegate District turned out so few voters that the entire Delegate District vote was only 77% of what it was in 2016.

This is really front and center to my entire theory that poor and working-class Urban voters are disenfranchised by the mail-in-ballot system. General Election-only voters are already less motivated than people who vote in both the Primaries and the General Election. That’s why the Democrats resort to hate and fear tactics to get out the General vote. Now, how are the Democrats going to motivate the average General Election-only urban voter to fill out the mail-in ballot when they can’t even get their urban Primary voters to show up for the Primary?

2. TRENTON AND CAMDEN:

The Democratic turnout was slightly higher for the district that included Trenton, likely because Trenton is numerically a smaller percentage of the district than the other “urban” districts. There are many higher income Democrats in nearby areas that successfully mailed in their votes, and made up for Trenton voting low. However, Republican turnout was up more. 

Democratic turnout for their Delegate District #2, which includes the City of Camden, large parts of Camden and Gloucester Counties, and parts of Salem and Cumberland County was 89.1% of what it was in 2016. For the Republicans, voter turnout was up 47.1% in roughly the same area. This is a major swing.

3. LAKEWOOD REGION:

The Democratic Delegate district covering parts of southern Monmouth and northern Ocean County came in nearly the lowest of all, only 79.7% of the turnout in 2016. This district includes Asbury Park, a small urban center, as well as economically challenged Democratic voters in northern Ocean County, perhaps in places like Lakewood and Seaside Heights. This is the same general area that had the astounding 68% increase in Republican turnout, their highest in New Jersey.

Clearly there are major income and demographic differences between the respective Party voters in this part of New Jersey. Republicans in this part of New Jersey are more likely to be higher-income Orthodox Jewish homeowners, while Democrats are more likely to be lower-income minorities who are renters and who work service sector jobs.

The Lakewood region is strongly trending Republican, and this will continue for generations based on an ongoing surge in the Orthodox Jewish population that has astounded demographers. In two generations, 100,000 Orthodox Jews in and near Lakewood will become a million people spread out into many communities within 20 miles. This will lock in New Jersey as a Red State.

4. REPUBLICAN TURNOUT INCREASED MORE THAN DEMOCRATIC TURNOUT.

In 2016 Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders drew 894,305 votes statewide, versus 954,600 in 2020. That’s an increase of 6.7%. In 2016, the Republicans drew 282,405 votes for Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and John Kasich combined, versus 380,971 for Donald Trump in 2020. Overall Republican turnout was 34.9% higher in 2020, versus 6.7% higher for Democrats. Now for the really interesting data.

Obama gathered 1,141,199 in the 2008 Primary when he had challengers, but only 283,673 Primary Votes in 2012 when he ran unopposed. Fact: Obama’s Primary vote in New Jersey in 2012 was less than 25% of his count in 2008. Complacency. Remember that word, I’ll talk about it more later.

Obama’s stats in 2008 and 2012 leads one to think that the 2020 turnout for Trump would also be only about 25% of his turnout in 2016. Or perhaps 50%. After all, Trump did the same thing that Obama did for his re-election, which is that he ran unopposed in his Party’s Primary Election in New Jersey. Nope, the reverse happened. Trump’s turnout was 67.6% HIGHER in the 2020 Primary than in 2016. Republican turnout increased from 2016 to 2020, despite Trump running unopposed. Compared side to side, these numbers for Obama and Trump are eye-popping. The loyalty for Trump is far more intense among his base. There was no complacency at all.

This is real data showing more energy and momentum on the Republican side in New Jersey.

5. ALL REPUBLICAN DISTRICTS INCREASED; SOME DEMOCRATIC DISTRICTS DECREASED.

The overall Republican turnout was higher in all 12 of their Delegate Districts, ranging from 6.4% in one that covers part of Middlesex County and nearby areas, to 47.1% higher in the far northwestern district, and an astounding 68.2% higher in the district covering parts of Monmouth and Ocean Counties. This shows momentum, and it also proves that the mail-in-ballot system does not deter Republican voters, no matter what their socio-economic background, because their value system is based on personal responsibility.

Democratic turnout dropped from 2016 to 2020 in all the Delegate Districts with lots of economically disadvantaged Democratic voters.

6. JEFF VAN DREW AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY.

In this area, which is partly represented by Congressman Jeff Van Drew, Republican turnout was 47% higher versus 27% higher for the Democrats. The respectable Democratic turnout here, versus other Jersey shore regions, may be due to Van Drew being the only Congressman nationally to switch parties due to the Trump impeachment. Because of what Van Drew did, politics is more visible, more front and center, for voters of both parties in all of New Jersey, but especially in this region.

Elected Democrats are doing little to stop all of the rioting, looting, flag burnings and statue topplings. This agitates the silent majority of voters, and these days that includes people of all races and backgrounds. Past election records can’t be used to predict the 2020 Presidential contest in New Jersey and elsewhere.

There is also a national trend for working class Whites to vote Republican, even if they are registered Democrats or Independents. Many working-class Whites who are still registered as Democrats are just not motivated to vote for these Democratic candidates who are bashing American history, and who sit silent while their Far-Left Party activists condemn capitalism and all the “deplorables”. These deplorables look like them, but vote Republican. That Leftist political game is slowly shifting the working class White population to the Republican side. And plenty of working class minorities are following not far behind.

After four and a half years of Trump Derangement Syndrome, working class people are trending Republican in northwestern New Jersey, across the entire southernmost tier of New Jersey, and in select northern areas, including Bayonne, southwestern Bergen County, Sayreville, and the Raritan Bayshore of Monmouth County.

The following article analyzes the 2012 and 2016 Elections in New Jersey https://gregorynaigles.com/2017/01/21/what-on-earth-happened-in-2016-part-5-new-jersey-presidential-election-and-demographic-analysis/ The second map comparing Romney voters to Trump voters by municipality is very telling, hence the article title “What on Earth happened”. The old paradigm of wealthy educated people being the Republican brand is breaking down and being replaced by a new paradigm in which elitist and college-educated people are Democrats, and the common people of all backgrounds vote for Trump.

This is part of the reason why Black and Latino support for Trump is far higher than for any other Republican Presidential contender in generations. Minority enthusiasm for the toxic masculinity displayed in the hit movie Black Panther presages their acceptance of what some say is Donald Trump’s toxic masculinity. The leftist message that masculinity is toxic and bad for society is losing appeal, especially among men. The same movie also showed a technologically advanced society acting tribal and choosing its political leaders through violent conflict. That’s quite concerning. Does it also presage the future? Life does imitate art. There can be another whole discussion about that.

Now, back to the mail-in-ballot chaos discussion. In many households, especially in urban centers and economically depressed rural areas in southwestern New Jersey, those mail-in ballots will be sitting buried in a massive pile of junk mail, magazines, newspapers, bills, homework assignments, kid’s artwork and doodlings, grocery receipts, various Legal notices, traffic tickets, and other paperwork amassing on the dining room table. Ballots will be separated from instructions, causing uncertainty and more procrastination. Food and drinks will spill, and pets will chew. Some ballots will be partially filled out, but they didn’t have time to read the three ballot questions. Some people will rip off the certificate, or otherwise process it wrong. Some ballots will be filled out correctly, but left on the table or in a car, and not mailed in. Chaos will reign. 

How do I know this is true? I linked the 2020 Primary results to prove that the vote count will be depressed. It is true. It happened in June for the Primary Election, and it will happen again in a much bigger way on Election Day. A prediction with facts, and citing a recent precent must be taken much more seriously.

The Delegate District covering Elizabeth and Plainfield voted at only 77% of their 2016 turnout for the 2020 Primary. That should have been a giant red flag waving in the faces of the State’s Democratic leaders. “Equality of Opportunity” created by mailing everyone a ballot did not result in “Equality of Outcome”. The Democratic leaders of New Jersey saw the results, but didn’t learn from their mistake. They are going to try it again for the General Election. This is a special kind of stupid.

On Election Day, many of these voters will head out to their polling places, only to be handed the same paperwork to fill out. There will be giant lines of people, hours long, all seeking advice on how to correctly fill it out. There won’t be enough poll workers or other volunteers to help everyone before the polls close at 8:00 PM. People are going to be screaming that they wanted to vote, but the polls closed. Well, it was their Democratic Party leaders that designed this system, and their voters procrastinated their vote. No, they don’t get a second bite at the apple. Sorry. Don’t like it? Blame your Governor and your State Democratic Chair.

Voters in better financial circumstances, and less overwhelmed with various problems and emergencies will handle the mail-in-ballot paperwork with much greater efficiency and accuracy. This includes conservatives as well as higher-income Democrats. The famously liberal voters in places like Ridgewood, Maplewood, and South Orange, all making six figures, will fill out and mail in their ballots, outperforming their town’s Democratic votes in 2012 and 2016. There will be no problem there. I expect record Democratic turnout from those liberal suburbs.

It’s the lower income working class people that are registered Democrats who will be most disaffected. Meanwhile Republicans of all income levels are responding and filling out the paperwork. The Primary data from June proves it. There will be a performance difference between working-class Republicans and working-class Democrats for the 2020 General Election.

Think about it. It’s really asking a lot for the person working three part-time jobs just to pay rent and put food on the table to find the time to tackle the vote by mail paperwork. “This is important, but I’ll get to this later is the basic response”. Of people with low or modest income, conservatives will actually get to it later, complete it properly, and mail it in (or walk it in on Election Day), all at higher rates than those who are left-leaning, because they are more PERSONALLY RESPONSIBLE. A filter has been created, personal responsibility, which blocks out many Democratic-leaning voters.

Am I the first person to make this observation? No, others have touched on similar themes. Brian Dunn, a former Obama campaigner and founder of a company that works on VBM programs, stated in an article published on June 23, 2020: “There is justified concern that Democratic-leaning voters may be disadvantaged through vote-by-mail systems”. The author of the article said there will be no effect on partisan turnout or vote share, but in journalistic fairness quoted Dunn as taking an opposing view. https://www.pnas.org/content/117/25/14052

Surely, New Jersey’s leading Democratic strategists have analyzed these 2016 and 2020 data sets side by side, and saw the trends. Despite seeing the trends, they went ahead with having the General Election decided by a mail-in ballot to everyone. The lure of “Equality of Opportunity” was so great and so politically correct that they must have felt it will somehow benefit them on Election Day. Fine by me, the mail-in ballot system strongly favors Republicans, and I’m supporting Donald Trump.

Now, for the big question. Will the pattern I have documented make enough difference on Election Day? After all, Biden is so far ahead in the official polls.

Here’s a few recent polls, mostly showing Biden with about a 20% edge in New Jersey. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/new-jersey/

We all remember how inaccurate the polls were in 2016. There are three major factors affecting the accuracy of the polls in 2020

1. SILENT MAJORITY NOT RESPONDING TO POLSTERS.

After four and half raging years of Trump Derangement Syndrome, voters are even more unlikely to admit to pollsters that they are voting for Trump. Especially with friends, co-workers, or family members listening to the conversation. Some will say they are voting for Biden, and others will hang up the phone. In the more liberal areas of New Jersey, you don’t see any lawn signs for Trump or people wearing MAGA hats. That’s how suppressed conservative political expression has become.

2. MAIL-IN-BALLOT SYSTEM.

The effect of the mail-in vote system on partisan turnout and vote share, as fully described in this essay.

3. PSYCHOLOGICAL TACTICS ARE BACKFIRING.

The pollsters, along with pundits and the mainstream media, are all saying that New Jersey for Biden is a done deal, so why vote. Trying to change people’s perception of reality is emotional abuse. These psychological tactics are a bit like gaslighting. They think they can discourage conservative voters into staying home. Ironically, these psychological tactics will do more to depress the Democratic vote in the urban centers. Complacency that New Jersey will vote Blue has set in. “We got this; enough other people are voting. I don’t need to fill out this complicated paperwork”. Republican-leaning voters are personally responsible, and are more likely to vote no matter what.

“Likely voters” answering pollsters are not actual voters who successfully maneuver the mail-in-ballot system. Take 10% away from Biden and give it to Trump, and suddenly the race is a coin toss. On Election Day in New Jersey, the dreamology of Equality of Opportunity will crash and burn against the wall of reality and personal responsibility. 

Now, how do these factors affect that actual vote? Are the polls off by a few percent due to Trump Derangement Syndrome. I bet that’s a 5% swing of the vote. So, it won’t be 59 to 39, but more like 54 to 44 for intended voters. If the General Election was being conducted normally, not by mail-in-ballot, I’d give it to Biden 54 to 44, with 2% going to other candidates. Remember, intended voters may equal actual voters for most elections, but not for this election due to the mail-in system.

Now, does the mail-in-ballot system and the psychological tactics suppress enough Democratic votes enough to make up the difference? In this case, the votes lost to Biden are not gained by Trump. I think so. We shall see. I’m still calling New Jersey for Donald Trump.

By insisting that every resident is mailed a ballot, the Democratic leaders of New Jersey created a filter, an obstacle to voting, that disenfranchised many of their own voters. The Democrats wanted “equality of opportunity”, and they thought that mailing everyone a ballot would level the playing field and allow everyone the equal opportunity to vote. It sounded so fair, so wonderful, and so liberal. On Election Day, that liberal worldview of “equality of opportunity” is going to crash and burn.

There’s going to be an utter panic on Election Day, with folks screaming that they wanted to vote, but can’t or didn’t.

Here’s the New Jersey voter information portal. https://www.nj.gov/state/elections/vote.shtml

Their list of frequently asked questions doesn’t even contain the question: “Will there be people at the polling place to help me fill out the provisional ballot” That’s how blind they are to this crisis coming.

I described in the origin version of this essay on October 12th how people react to voter registration drives in urban areas. They say they are going to fill out the paperwork and mail it in, but they don’t. “I’m really busy right now, but. I will fill it out later and mail it in. I got this”. I saw this happen first-hand, repeatedly. And that voter registration paperwork is far simpler and easier to fill out than the 2020 Mail-in-ballot.

The New Jersey mail-in ballot of 2020 is going to become a textbook case illustrating the conservative position that “equality of opportunity” does not mean “equality of outcome”. And the consequences are high, New Jersey’s 14 electoral votes could decide the Presidential election. I’ll be ecstatic if my home State is the surprise win that vaults Donald Trump over the magic 270 number. Here’s an electoral map https://engaging-data.com/sizing-states-electoral/

All the Republicans need to do is get 2 million people in New Jersey to vote for Trump by mail. He got 1,601,933 votes in 2016. Given the energy and the increased participation in the Primary election, it’s entirely reasonable to expect Trump to pull in 2 million votes in New Jersey. 

Will Biden get 2 million? Hillary got 2,148,278 votes in New Jersey in 2016. That was without all the chaos of a mail-in-ballot. Will the mail-in system and complacency that Biden will win disenfranchise a few hundred thousand Democratic voters statewide? You can bet on it.

This race in New Jersey is not a 20-point spread. It’s a nail-biter. Don’t let any of the media or the pollsters tell you otherwise.

I don’t know how many States are voting solely by mail-in ballot. Each State is handling the CoronaVirus situation differently. Other northeastern Blue states that are also voting solely by mail-in ballot don’t have as large a Republican base as New Jersey does for what I described in this article to make a difference. This could be a New Jersey specific situation, or it could affect just a handful of States nationally.

And if it comes down to New Jersey’s electoral votes deciding the Presidency, there won’t be anything close to a final answer until November 20th. Here’s a quote from Tahesha Way, Secretary of State for New Jersey. "Around November 20 the counties will provide their certified election results to me and I must certify by December the 8, so by December 8," she said.
https://6abc.com/vote-nj-voting-in-new-jersey-2020-election/7456468/

Just wait till the night of the election. All the experts and the media will call New Jersey for Biden, without any real evidence. And then as November 20th nears, a few counties will release their tabulations, and the news will be shocking. By November 20th, the real numbers will be released. The New Jersey vote could be the makings of one of the greatest political upsets of all time.

I know my State and the people of New Jersey fairly well. I typically use this blog for advocacy purposes, but this is an actual prediction. I also predicted on October 12th that the Democrats will figure this out just before Election Day, and there will be a mad scramble to go door to door, and walk people through the awkward voting process. Well, that doesn’t seem to be happening. A whole lot of complacency has set in. New Jersey is decided, they say, and their attention is on “swing states”.

The path is set for Donald Trump to win New Jersey’s 14 electoral votes. The Republicans just need to get the word out that the election is within reach in New Jersey, and set a goal of 2.1 million votes. Let’s give a 100,000 edge to the likely 2 million that is needed. This is totally achievable. If people see that it’s really possible to win New Jersey for Trump, even more people will vote.

And if the Republicans are smart, they will prepare in advance for the legal challenges here in New Jersey that could go all the way to the US Supreme Court. And they should tell Trump Headquarters to defer conceding New Jersey, no matter what, until the final vote is in.

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