It’s October 12th, and I’m projecting that Donald Trump will win the electoral votes for my home State, New Jersey, despite most polls putting him at under 40%. The reason is totally off the radar scope, and it will shock all but the most seasoned political observers. Filling out the ballot and mailing it in is too complicated. It will be procrastinated, disproportionately affecting who votes.

I just voted. I read all the instructions, I filled out the ballot and inserted it into an envelope with a special tear-off certificate that needs to be filled out, but not torn off by the voter. This envelope then must be inserted into yet another envelope, and then mailed. There are several sets of instructions duplicating the process. They are printed on the envelopes and on inserted pages. For Bergen County where I live, the instructions are in English, Spanish, and Korean. Further complicating the matter are thousands of words associated with three ballot questions to be put to the voters, each with an interpretive statement, and that’s all in English, Spanish, and Korean. It’s information overload.

Mail-in ballots are way more complicated than filling out a voter registration form, and in New Jersey it is the only way to vote in this election. Prepare to become a believer in my election prediction.

Have you ever participated in a voter registration drive? I have, once as a Democrat, and once as a Republican. Here’s the classic response of an unregistered voter:

HIM: “I’m so glad to meet you. Thank you so much, I’ve always wanted to register to vote, and I want to vote in the next election. Just give me the form, I’ll fill it out and mail it in”.

YOU (as trained to say): “Let’s just fill it out now to make sure it’s done, and done right. It will take less than a minute, it’s really easy. I’ll walk you through it, and I’ll make sure it’s processed. You’ll get a voter registration card in the mail in a few weeks. What’s the correct spelling of your legal name, as it appears on your birth certificate?”.

HIM: “Actually I’m really busy, I don’t have the time right now. But I promise you, really, I promise you, I want to vote. I’ll fill it out and mail it in. I got this”.

Now, what’s the chance that guy will actually fill out the voter registration form and mail it in? If you’ve participated in a voter registration drive, you know the answer. You were told the answer by those who trained you. It’s way less than 50% in the suburbs, and the figure is abysmal in the urban centers.

There is every reason to believe that this pattern will duplicate for the mail-in ballot, which is far more complicated than a voter registration form. https://www.state.nj.us/state/elections/assets/pdf/forms-voter-registration/68-voter-registration-english.pdf

Huge numbers of people are going to procrastinate and fail to complete their mail-in ballot, and those completing it will disproportionately be the more organized and personally responsible members of society. Yes, the mail-in ballot system strongly favors Republicans. Wow. Bang. Zoom. Whoopie!!!!

Lots of voters who open the packet will “get to this later”, especially after getting blasted with information overload. It’s just too much to read and process.

In many households, especially in urban areas, those mail-in ballots will be sitting buried in a massive pile of junk mail, magazines, newspapers, bills, homework assignments, kid’s artwork and doodlings, grocery receipts, Eviction, Family Court and Collection notices, traffic tickets, and other paperwork amassing on the dining room table. Ballots will be separated from instructions, causing uncertainty and more procrastination. Some ballots will be partially filled out, but they didn’t have time to read the three ballot questions. Some people will rip off the certificate, or otherwise process it wrong. Some ballots will be filled out correctly, but left on the table or in a woman’s car, and not mailed in. Chaos will reign.

Conservatives will handle the paperwork with much greater efficiency and accuracy. Far fewer conservatives will be deterred, or procrastinate the task for too long. Republicans will be far more likely to complete the mail-in ballot, and complete it properly.

By insisting that every resident is mailed a ballot, the Democratic leaders of New Jersey created a filter, an obstacle to voting, that disenfranchises their own voters. The Democrats wanted “equality of opportunity”, and they thought that mailing everyone a ballot would level the playing field and allow everyone the equal opportunity to vote. It sounded so fair, so wonderful, and so liberal. On Election Day, that liberal worldview of “equality of opportunity” is going to crash and burn against the stone wall of reality and personal responsibility.

There’s going to be an utter panic on Election Day, with folks screaming that they wanted to vote, but can’t or didn’t.

The New Jersey mail-in ballot of 2020 is going to become a textbook case illustrating the conservative position that “equality of opportunity” does not mean “equality of outcome”. And the consequences are high, New Jersey’s 14 electoral votes could decide the Presidential election. I’ll be ecstatic if my home State is the surprise win that vaults Donald Trump over the magic 270 number. Here’s an electoral map https://engaging-data.com/sizing-states-electoral/

I don’t know how many States are voting solely by mail-in ballot. Each State is handling the CoronaVirus situation differently. Other northeastern Blue states that are also voting solely by mail-in ballot don’t have as large a Republican base as New Jersey does for what I described in this article to make a difference. This could be a New Jersey specific situation, or it could affect just a handful of States nationally.

Now, let’s look at the polling numbers. There have been 12 polls in New Jersey since September 1st, and Trump is running 34% to 40%. Add a few points to that to reflect the reality that people are cautious about telling a pollster they are voting for Trump. Remember, that’s why the 2016 Trump win was such a surprise. After four years of Trump Derangement Syndrome, that polling gap could be even wider.

But even considering the likely polling gap, in a normal election, the Republican nominee wouldn’t stand a chance in New Jersey. This isn’t a normal election, there’s a filter designed by Democrats that favors Republicans. 

I have a Bachelor’s Degree in Information & Systems Sciences from Stockton State College in New Jersey. Yes, I’m an INFO major. That gives me some standing on the subject matter of information overload and information processing. In addition, I have been a Democrat, an Independent, and a Republican. I have lived in Hackensack, Newark, suburban Bergen County, and in the middle of the piney forests of Atlantic County. I work as a home improvement contractor, and I have visited over 1000 homeowners in the last 12 years in suburban and urban areas. I’ve seen those dining room tables overloaded with paperwork. Some piles even include my company’s unsigned home improvement contracts. “Yes, I’ll sign it, we’re going to hire you to change our windows”.

I know my State and the people of New Jersey fairly well. I typically use this blog for advocacy purposes, but this is an actual prediction, not an advocacy piece. I also predict that the Democrats will figure this out just before Election Day, and there will be a mad scramble to go door to door, and walk people through the awkward voting process. It will be too little too late. Donald Trump will win New Jersey’s 14 electoral votes.

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