Trillions of dollars of wealth has been lost. This is not a prediction.  I like to speculate, but this is not my speculation.  It has already happened. Trillions have been lost. The losses are increasing further.  Without a doubt, 10 Trillion will be lost before this CoronaVirus problem is resolved, and maybe much more.

The whole economic engine of our great nation is sputtering. It’s running at 70% power or less. It won’t “bounce right back” because the trillions lost aren’t coming back. The money is not simply gone, it’s worse than gone. It’s gone into a debt that can’t ever be repaid. The trillions already lost are hurting so many businesses and so many people. So let’s ask:

WHO takes the loss?  The entire country is on a pathway towards bankruptcy.

WHO is protected from the loss?  Trillions have been lost.

This is a serious discussion on at least three levels.  It’s an economic discussion. It’s a philosophical discussion. It’s a spiritual discussion.  Yes, it involves rents, but it is far deeper and more fundamental than a discussion on rent control.  

Should all segments of society share in the loss? Should everyone from big business to the average tenant somehow “share” in the loss?

Or should the working class be the most protected? Wouldn’t that be the proper Christian position? As a Christian, I’m naturally inclined to lean in that direction. I’m far more of a Christian conservative than an economic conservative.

It really does matter if the working class is economically protected by public policy decisions. But at the same time, it doesn’t matter, and here’s why. THE WORKING CLASS DOESN’T HAVE TRILLIONS TO LOSE, so the money can’t be extracted no matter what.  A stone cannot produce blood.  

TENS OF MILLIONS OF PEOPLE COULD THEORETICALLY BE RENDEDED BANKRUPT AND/OR HOMELESS BECAUSE THEY CAN’T PAY THEIR RENT, BUT THAT WOULD YIELD FAR LESS THAN ONE TRILLION.  

It might not even yield 100 billion. The losses are many trillions. And then tens of millions of people will be forced onto government-funded social services, which will cost trillions more. There’s no net gain. Making the poor and working class absorb the nation’s economic loss will only compound the problem, and create an even greater loss to society as a whole via social service spending.  

So, we are back to the questions.  Who’s taking that loss?  Who’s protected from the loss?

Some say that residential and commercial landlords must be "protected" from the loss, no matter what.  “That retail store signed a lease to rent my space, and they must pay no matter what. It’s not my problem that 100 employees will lose their jobs if the retailer goes out of business”, says the multi-millionaire from Stamford, CT or Franklin Lakes, NJ who owns the building.  

Is this sound public policy? Why are landlords somehow the only ones protected, when all other segments of society are taking a loss. Why are they entitled to have no loss to their business plan?

CoronaVirus and its economic impact are pushing the entire country into a Depression. This is not a Recession, it’s a Depression. This economic crisis is far worse than the summer of 2008 when the financial community was in crisis. Remember Bear Stearns?

Here’s a snapshot of what’s happening now. Stocks and mutual funds, and people’s life savings, are way down. Business contracts have been canceled or postponed. Most apartment buildings under construction are going to just sit there, half-built for years. Home values will be collapsing, it just hasn’t hit yet. Of course they will, it’s a simple matter of supply and demand.

Incomes are down or eliminated for huge numbers of people. Even people who can work can’t work because their new job is to sit home and be a full-time teacher, since the schools are closed too. All of this means that millions of tenants can’t pay their full rent. Or any rent. I’m talking about both commercial tenants and residential tenants. Fathers can’t pay their child support or alimony. Millions have filed for unemployment, and millions will go bankrupt because they can’t pay their credit cards at the insane interest rates our country allows.

Taxes collected, meaning everything from sales tax to income tax to property tax, will go dramatically down. Therefore, in coming months and years, government will not have inadequate revenue to pay for schools and other services. Not even close. This means that taxes will increase dramatically on the remaining taxpayers. Taxpayers and property owners are going to be slaughtered in the near future, within a year.  

Many businesses are shut down or losing revenue, and since consumer spending is down to 50% or less, there’s little hope of a rebound.  Banks will be taking huge losses, for multiple reasons. And don’t forget that bankers personally own most major businesses either directly or via stock holdings. And the Arts, sports, non-profits, and houses of worship are all taking a devastating loss.

It seems like every segment of society is taking a loss.  

But only one segment adamantly refuses to take a loss, and has a profound philosophical position of their entitlement to an unaltered money flow. Now we are back to the landlords. Nobody else acts so entitled.

Will it be decided that the landlords are entitled to nothing less than 100% of their rent due?  Even in a national economic disaster unprecedented in our lifetime? “What’s to decide”, they say. From their perspective, it’s ridiculous to even have this discussion. There’s nothing to discuss, that’s the status quo. That’s the way it is. That’s how firm they are about it.

Will the whole country collapse economically, but meanwhile tenants can simply be told “hey, you signed a lease. If you can’t afford it, go find a cheaper place to live. Consider yourself lucky that I’m letting you break the lease terms”.  But the reality is that the tenant can’t leave, because there’s nowhere to go. It’s just like the situation in Portland, OR for the last 10 years.

What will be the social and political consequences of a public policy decision that tenants just have to pay their full rent? I can answer that. If anyone wants a sneak preview of that future, just look at what’s happened in Portland, OR over the last 10 years. A light rail line opened, causing a phenomenal waive of gentrification.  Rents doubled and tripled in just a few years. Tenants, many of them burdened with gigantic student loans, went nuts. They couldn’t afford to survive. From their perspective, the entire economic structure of society was a failure. They founded ANTIFA and the Equality Federation, which have both gone national, along with the most virulent and organized push for Socialism in the entire country.  They actually got state-level rent control passed in Oregon, which is a joke because it allows 9.9%. That’s not a victory for tenants.

It sure looks like the forces that molded Portland, and made that city into the political force that it is today, are going to happen all over America due to this economic crisis and the refusal of landlords to offer meaningful concessions. And in fairness to the landlords, the level of concession needed puts them underwater.

What is taking shape is beyond terrifying from a social and political perspective.  Conservatives all around the country are in for a jolting reality check. They don’t see what is coming. They really don’t. All they see is “Just pay your rent, you signed the lease. That’s a binding contract”. I’ve been poor, I’ve lived in Newark. I see what’s coming. I don’t need to go back to Newark. Newark and Portland are coming to my town, and to the rest of America

It’s like we have entered into the End Of Days scenario prophesized so long ago. The Times of Tribulation are upon us. The darkness has descended.

I don’t want to minimize the suffering of those who have contracted CoronaVirus, but I am not talking about people getting sick. I’m talking about the social and economic collapse. America has entered a crisis only seen three times previously in our history. Those times were the American Revolution, the Civil War, and the Great Depression/World War II.  

Each time our society has been completely transformed and reoriented. We as a nation survived the first three. That doesn’t mean we will survive this time.  It’s far from certain with the divisive political forces dividing our country. The continuing existence of our country is on the line, and it is seriously in doubt.  

Praying will help, and prayers are desperately needed, but to just trust in God to see us through this national crisis is utterly foolish. It’s about as smart as continuing to attend services in your church or synagogue during the pandemic, because social distancing is not needed when you have faith in God.

All will not be well, and everything we think is the status quo in this country is on the table.

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